MEMO: PA Mail-In ballot Program General election overview

To: Interested Parties

From: Dee Duncan, President, RSLC PAC
Jessica Anderson, President, SAF
Brendon DelToro, Chief Strategist, Keystone Renewal PAC

Date: June 10, 2024

Re: Pennsylvania Mail-In Ballot Program | General Election Overview

Overview

Since announcing our historic vote-by-mail effort in the Keystone State, our objective has remained clear: to secure more than 200,000 new Republican vote-by-mail (VBM) voters in Pennsylvania during the 2024 election cycle. Thanks to our early investment during the primaries, we've already made significant headway, adding nearly 25,000 new voters to the permanent Vote By Mail list from our target universe and surpassing our 2022 primary election Republican VBM request total.

Post-primary, our singular focus is bringing an additional 175,000 new VBM Republican voters necessary to achieve our target, with 100,000 or more of them coming from low-propensity Republican voters and 75,000 of them coming from voters who have never voted by mail previously.

General Election Phase 1 (June - July)

During Phase One, we'll employ a multi-faceted approach to reach our target audience, urging them to utilize vote-by-mail during the November 2024 General Election. This period is crucial for maintaining our presence in voters' minds and the momentum created during the primary election as we head towards the peak of summer, marked by the Republican National Convention in July. Looking at the historical performance of similar absentee and early voting efforts, we anticipate that during Phase One, we will be able to produce roughly 30% of our projected VBM requests.

We expect a surge in engagement during this phase, and our spending will reflect that goal with voters actively requesting VBM ballots ahead of the General Election. With the Republican National Convention occurring in July, we will have an opportunity to convert large numbers of low-propensity voters in the early months of the summer as they are increasingly paying attention to the state of races up and down the ballot. Leveraging the Republican National Convention as a rallying point, we'll lean on the increased national attention to message our voters and effectively bring them into the fold regarding voting by mail.

General Election Phase 2 (August)

This will be the slowest phase of the general election for VBM enrollment; people are taking their final vacations of the summer and preparing for back to school for their children. We will utilize this time to analyze what was effective during Phase One so we can implement these key strategic changes in the final phase for maximum engagement. Most of our voter contact will be towards the end of the month to hit and reach voters right after that key Labor Day time period. During Phase Two, we anticipate we will produce an additional 10% of our projected VBM requests, bringing our total to nearly 70,000 new VBM requests.

General Election Phase 3 (September - November)

The final phase of the general election is when we will see the highest engagement and voter contact from our program. This is the critical period during which we will secure the final number of vote-by-mail voters to reach our 200,000 goal. During this phase, we anticipate the bulk, 60%, of new VBM requests will be generated. We observed a similar pattern in our absentee and early voting program in Virginia, where low-propensity voters—the majority of our target universe—begin to pay attention to the election and decide to participate, with most low- propensity absentee and early votes being cast after October 15th.

Everything prior to this phase will be considered a VBM “push” aimed at generating as many VBM requests as possible. Our goal is to create 200,000 votes. Given that we anticipate roughly 70% of our voters will return their VBM requests, we will need to produce over 260,000 new VBM requests before and during the early stages of Phase Three. To surpass our 2022 vote-by-mail numbers, we will need to generate nearly 500,000 total VBM requests, including voters who requested vote-by-mail ballots during the 2022 general election.

To reach our Phase Three goals, we will employ multiple forms of voter contact to encourage people to vote by mail and join the permanent VBM list. Additionally, we will implement other strategic forms of voter contact to complete our comprehensive GOTV program in Pennsylvania.

Engaging High-Propensity Republicans

In 2020, over 100,000 high-propensity voters, including more than 35,000 4-of-4 voters and over 70,000 3-of-4 voters, chose to skip casting their ballots. By 2022, this figure surged to over 230,000, with a notable rise in both categories. The significance of this trend becomes evident when considering the electoral outcomes, particularly in Pennsylvania, where the margin of victory in 2020 was roughly 80,000 votes, and in 2022, when it widened to about 260,000 votes.

These numbers underscore the potential impact of high-propensity voter turnout on election results. While the focus remains on engaging new low-propensity voters, there remains a need to challenge the narrative that cannibalizing Election Day votes is detrimental. In fact, this strategy alleviates pressure on Election Day operations, allowing for more effective allocation of resources toward persuasion efforts during the final stretch of the GOTV period. A successful example of this approach was witnessed in Virginia in 2023, where early engagement resulted in a significant portion of our vote goal already secured before Election Day, leading to victories in six targeted races. Looking at the realities of potential high-propensity drop-off during any given general election our team will continue to monitor high-propensity voters who have indicated a willingness to vote by mail and will include them in our voter engagement efforts when appropriate.

Key Takeaways

Our VBM program will experience several surges, dips, and plateaus between now and November. Our focus remains firmly on reaching our ultimate goal of creating 200,000 new VBM Republicans with the majority of those voters coming from low-propensity Republicans. With our comprehensive plan, we are confident we will hit this benchmark.

Throughout this period, we will continuously evaluate our progress. This ongoing assessment will allow us to make the necessary adjustments in targeting, messaging, or contact mediums to ensure our success.