MEMO: $38 Million Plan to Win the Battle for State Legislatures in 2024

TO: RSLC Investors
FROM: Dee Duncan
President, RSLC
DATE: June 25, 2024
RE: $38 Million Plan to Win the Battle for State Legislatures in 2024 

WHAT’S AT STAKE IN 2024

While most eyes are on the presidential election with the first debate set for this week, and with both parties readying to hold their national conventions during the next two months, the battle for control of the states is heating up and should not go unnoticed. 

We have been working hand-in-hand with the entire GOP political apparatus in recent months and understand full-well the importance of retaking the White House and complete control of the U.S. Congress in November, but the greatest long-term threat to our party is undoubtedly the possibility that Democrats this year could regain control of the majority of our nation’s state legislative chambers for the first time since 2010. This might seem like a far-fetched scenario given the dominance Republicans have achieved in the states for over a decade. However, a mere 33 seats stand in the way of Democrats flipping the five chambers they need to achieve this feat. Our task to stop them has only gotten more difficult since we issued our initial cycle targets a year ago thanks to the reckless redistricting ruling of the Wisconsin Supreme Court that has put both of the state’s GOP-held chambers in play. 

Democrats are not letting this moment pass them by. The liberal money machine is already kicking into overdrive, as the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), the States Project, National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC) and Forward Majority have already pledged to spend north of $160 million combined on state legislative races in 2024. 

RSLC’S HISTORIC SPENDING PLEDGE

While we will never be able to match the constellation of national Democrat organizations that spend on state legislative races dollar for dollar, we can still fight back with smart, targeted investments of our own. That’s what we’ve been doing with efforts like our vote-by-mail program in Pennsylvania and our Absentee Ballot and Early Voting program (AB/EV) in Michigan. These tactics, combined with the advantage state Republicans have on the issues most important to voters, give us a chance to overcome the onslaught of spending we will see from Democrats this fall — but only if we can minimize the disparity. To that end, the RSLC this year will make its largest ever investment in state legislative races and spend $38 million. That will bring our total spending on state legislative races this cycle to $50 million, which is a record for the committee.  

This money will go towards independent expenditures launched by the RSLC and its affiliated PACs, donations directly to candidates in key districts, and contributions to allied groups in the states with the best infrastructures for winning state legislative races. While the RSLC is a 50-state organization and we plan to be as active as ever before in 2024, this year more than ever we will prioritize the vast majority of our spending in our battleground target states.

UPDATED 2024 STATE LEGISLATIVE TARGETS

Battleground Targets

Republicans currently control 57 state legislative chambers while Democrats have majorities in 49. Tight margins in numerous states means that just five chambers stand in the way of Democrats gaining a national majority.

After Republicans lost control of the Virginia House during the 2023 elections, our job became even more difficult with new legislative maps being signed into law. This could not have been more true in a state like Wisconsin. Since 2011, the Republican majority in the Wisconsin Assembly has grown significantly, however this may all change at the end of 2025. Under the new legislative maps, the November election will be closely watched to see how the changes impact voter representation in Madison. Both parties will need to fight hard to secure legislative majorities in the 2024 election cycle, solidifying Wisconsin as a top-tier battleground and the biggest update to our battleground targets.

Majorities to Defend

• Arizona House and Senate

• Wisconsin House and Senate

• Pennsylvania Senate 

• New Hampshire House and Senate

• Georgia House and Senate
  

Opportunities to Flip Chambers

• Michigan House 

• Pennsylvania House

• Minnesota House

 
GOP Strongholds To Defend And Strengthen

Earlier this cycle, Democrats announced their plan to invest significant resources into the 2024 elections to dismantle Republican supermajorities in key states like Georgia, Kansas, and North Carolina. We must prevent them from gaining ground in these historically Republican strongholds. 

Current Supermajorities to Defend 

• Florida House and Senate

• Iowa Senate

• Kansas House and Senate

• North Carolina House and Senate

• Ohio House and Senate
  

Possible Supermajorities to Obtain

• Iowa House

• South Carolina Senate
  

Possibilities For Meaningful Gains In Liberal Strongholds

Republicans have an opportunity in 2024 to strategically weaken Democratic strongholds and potentially flip crucial seats across multiple blue states. Targeting states like New York and Illinois, where Democrats hold supermajorities, could pay off as Republicans have the potential to erode these overwhelming margins, restoring more balanced legislative power. Focused efforts in states like these can pave the way for more substantial influence in shaping state-level policies and strengthening our party's national presence. The RSLC is committed to not just maintaining, but expanding our efforts nationwide. As we head into the upcoming election, our focus remains on securing majorities, but we will also continue to lay the foundation for long-term success in these blue states. We are strategically investing in key states to break Democratic strongholds and build new majorities that will endure through the decade. 

• Illinois

• Maine

• Nevada

• New Mexico

• New York

• Oregon

• Washington
  

OUR ASK

While it is a major advantage for Democrats to have multiple well-funded groups engaged in state legislative races, it also creates obstacles for their overall strategy in the battle for state legislatures. The RSLC does not have the equivalent of a States Project or Forward Majority to compete with so we can know for certain that every dollar we spend between now and Election Day will be part of a national, data-driven strategy that maximizes efficiency. That cannot be said for the other side. 

The way we make up for the spending disparity this year is by making our investments in battleground states as early as possible, while the multiple national Democrat groups focused on state legislative races are still squabbling amongst themselves over who will be accountable for what. To do this we ask that you consider making additional donations and contributions from your 2024 budgets by mid-July so we can put those resources to work as soon as possible. 

We thank you for your continued support of the RSLC and know that the task before us would not be achievable if it wasn’t for our investors. Together, we will deploy our strategy with the maximum efficiency and ensure Republicans win the uphill battle ahead and come out of this cycle still holding control of more than half of our nation’s state legislative chambers.