Pennsylvania Mail-In Ballot Program | September Update

To: Interested Parties
From: Dee Duncan, President, RSLC PAC
Jessica Anderson, President, SAF
Brendon DelToro, Chief Strategist, Keystone Renewal PAC
Date: September 27, 2024

Re: Pennsylvania Mail-In Ballot Program | September Update
Skip the Line PA Update: August

Since the launch of our vote-by-mail initiative in Pennsylvania, our goal has been clear: to produce 200,000 new Republican vote-by-mail voters, including first-time voters, for the 2024 election.  Through strategic investments during the primaries and sustained outreach over the summer and early fall, we have made significant progress. We have already added nearly 120,000 voters to the permanent vote-by-mail list — 90,000 of those since the primary election. Beyond the permanent list, nearly 30% of Republican vote-by-mail requests have been submitted by voters who have never voted by mail previously and more than 34% of total Republican requests are coming from low-propensity voters.

Republicans in Pennsylvania have already generated more than 350,000 total vote-by-mail requests. To put this in perspective, at this point in 2022, Republicans had only generated around 172,000 vote-by-mail requests. As we continue to contact voters throughout October, our priority is to continue generating vote-by-mail requests and begin shifting our field program to chasing outstanding Republican vote-by-mail ballots. In addition to promoting mail-in voting, we will maintain our outreach to low-propensity voters and newly registered Republicans, emphasizing the critical importance of their participation in this pivotal election.

Investment and Key Metrics

Over 220,000 of our target universe voters have requested a vote-by-mail ballot. This is an overperformance of 290% compared to the Election Day only target voters. We continue to make significant progress in our voter contact efforts this cycle; to date we have knocked on over 528,000 doors and sent over 4.5 million vote-by-mail push mail pieces. Our campaign in the Commonwealth has generated over 92 million impressions and over 19,200 clicks. Finally, SkipTheLinePA.com, our website that offers voters the opportunity to join the mail-in voting list for 2024, has received 303,000 pageviews from 210,000 unique visitors.

Key Takeaways

Our goal for the general election has not changed: In the final month, we must continue to target low-propensity voters to get them off the sidelines to vote, and we need to continue to increase the Republican share of the overall vote-by-mail vote total in order to chip away at the Democrat mail-in voting advantage. We will continue working toward securing over 200,000 vote-by-mail voters; to date we have produced enough new vote-by-mail ballot requests, putting us over 55% of our goal. We anticipate that approximately 6.78 million voters from both parties will cast their ballots in Pennsylvania. For us to secure victory in November, our side needs to secure roughly 3.4 million of those votes. Looking at the 2020 election, we lost by about 80,000 votes. It is clear that reaching our vote-by-mail goal could be a decisive factor in the outcome of November’s election, considering the 2020 Presidential election was determined by less than 100,000 votes in the Keystone state. 

Across the ecosystem, more Republican groups than ever before have been engaged in growing vote-by-mail among Republican voters. This has been crucial to our efforts, and our continued success relies heavily on the increased participation and support from local Republicans and allied organizations. Despite Election Day being only a few weeks away, we are just now entering the peak phase of our program. The primary election and our efforts over the summer and early fall have continuously confirmed that our strategy is effective, with growing acceptance of mail-in voting among Republicans in Pennsylvania. Our strategic early investment has positioned us strongly for the final stretch of this campaign, and it is our mission to build on this momentum and secure victory in what may be the most crucial election of our lifetime this November.