MEMO: Strategy Insights and Action Plan Based on Survey of Likely General Election Voters in Battleground

MEMO
TO: State Legislative Candidates  
FROM: Dee Duncan, President, Republican State Leadership Committee
DATE: 3-26-24
SUBJECT: Strategy Insights and Action Plan Based on Survey of Likely General Election Voters in Battleground States

The State Government Leadership Foundation (SGLF), the 501c4 policy partner of the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), commissioned a national survey between March 10-12 on the heels of Super Tuesday to understand the sentiments of key constituents across the country and help inform policy decisions nationwide. RSLC analyzed the poll and what it found was a bleak picture for Democrats leading up to the November 2024 election. 

Overall Environment: Challenging Landscape for Democrats

President Biden's image is at a historic low (40%/57%) and Republican state candidates are leading on the generic ballot (47%/45%). Furthermore, nearly half of the voters feel worse off than four years ago, with 58% of voters who said they’re worse off indicating a shift towards Republican candidates as a result. These fundamentals give state Republicans a strong opportunity for success this fall if they continue to pursue an agenda that addresses the top concerns of the American people. 

GOP Positioning: Trusted on Key Issues

Thankfully, the two top issues that voters want to see addressed by their state legislature are ones that Republicans are focused on the most – inflation/rising prices and immigration/border security.

• 32% of likely voters said inflation/rising prices was the top issue they want addressed by their state legislature, while 30% said immigration/border security.
  

Our party is trusted to handle the three top issues among voters better than Democrats, which positions us well for the months ahead:

·      Inflation and the economy 49% - 37%

·      Crime and public safety 49% - 35% 

·      Illegal immigration and border security 51% - 34

Republican Policies Gain Favorable Attention from Voters 

While focusing on inflation/the economy, crime and public safety, and illegal immigration and border security, specific Republican policy proposals are more likely to gain favorable attention than others. Focus on these policy proposals within these three issues to boost your own standing with the electorate: 

• Inflation and the Economy: 

• Voters overwhelmingly support cutting taxes (65%) including gas and sales taxes (64%).

• Crime and Public Safety: 

  • To lower crime in the states, voters would like to see investments in mental health resources to address the root cause of crime (51%), boosting funding for law enforcement and an increase in local policing (49%), and protecting the border to reduce criminals entering the country illegally (44%).

• Illegal Immigration and Border Security  

  • In terms of what state legislatures can do specifically to curb illegal immigration, two-thirds of voters support banning sanctuary cities (33%) and mobilizing the national guard (33%).
    

Campaign Messaging: Capitalizing on Core Issues

Voters show lesser concern for issues Democrats are pushing to the forefront, such as abortion laws and threats against democracy. Only 13% of voters said they feel that abortion laws are the most important issue to them. Even less felt that fighting threats to democracy (11%) was the most important issue. Making matters worse for Democrats, they hold a meager 3% advantage over Republicans on which party can uphold voting rights. This is not significant enough to overcome their troubles with winning issues for Republicans like the economy, crime, and the border. 

Potential for Republican Growth 

While Republicans need to contrast themselves with Democrats on those three core issues of the economy, crime, and the border, there is room to grow with independent voters by showing more compassion on hot button issues that matter to voters: 

• Commonsense Doctor Protection: Voters are 58% more likely to support a candidate that voted for commonsense protections for doctors and fertility clinics who assist patients and families in having children.
  

• Discussing Crime from a Mental Health Perspective: An astounding 74% of voters are more likely to support a legislative candidate who voted to increase access to mental health resources and substance abuse treatment programs. 
   

It is critical that you speak compassionately about these issues when talking to voters in your legislative district.
 

What Will Help Republicans Grow Our Lead:

1. Develop a targeted communication plan emphasizing GOP's trusted ability to manage inflation and secure borders.

2. Design campaign ads that highlight success stories and GOP initiatives on crime reduction and economic improvement.

3. Organize campaign events to discuss solutions for mental health and the economy.

4. Train candidates on effective messaging around IVF and doctor protection to connect with voters' values.

5. Steer clear of making the election a singular referendum on Joe Biden, focusing instead on contrasting policies and vision. 

A Word of Caution: Avoiding Past Mistakes

We must learn from the missteps of the 2022 cycle and not solely target Joe Biden in our campaign messaging. While it's tempting, the data suggests this strategy is insufficient on its own. Yes, 48% of voters think they are worse off than they were four years ago, and yes, 58% of voters are more likely to support a Republican in response, but instead of solely focusing your campaign messaging on Biden, concentrate on the policy differences between Republicans and Democrats, highlighting GOP-led initiatives that are directly improving lives. Voters are only 46% less likely to support a state legislative candidate who supports Joe Biden for President which isn’t large enough of a difference maker for your state legislative campaign. With over 52% of voters having a favorable view of their state economy, remember to focus on your in-state successes.  

Conclusion: Maintaining Focus and Building on Strengths

While Republicans are in a favorable position, success will require a disciplined approach centered on our core strengths. By addressing critical issues head-on and showcasing GOP leadership in action, we can expand our lead and secure voter trust as the elections approach. Do not use Joe Biden as your crutch to make your argument, focus on how your policies can make a difference for your constituents on key issues like the economy, illegal immigration, and crime, while also making sure your compassion shines through on the issues voters may be traditionally skeptical of Republicans addressing. 

Methodology

This poll was commissioned by the State Government Leadership Foundation and conducted by Cygnal on March 10-12, 2024 as a multi-state battleground survey of likely general election voters, N=1500, +/- 2.52%. 

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