MEMORANDUM
To: Interested Parties
From: Edith Jorge-Tuñón, President, Republican State Leadership Committee
Date: November 7, 2025
Subject: Takeaways from This Week’s Election Results
INTRODUCTION
The outcome of Tuesday’s elections should not surprise anyone. History shows the party in power often struggles in its first post-presidential election and 2025 was no exception. In the Democrat strongholds of Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats won the first general election since Republicans took control of the White House and Congress in 2024.
At the top of the ticket, Republican candidates lost their respective races in blowouts by double-digit margins. In Virginia, Winsome Sears’ support collapsed in red, rural counties where turnout was critical, earning fewer votes than in her 2021 lieutenant governor’s race. In New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli gained votes from his last two gubernatorial runs but failed to drive home an effective message when it came to the key issues of affordability and the cost of living in New Jersey. Jack lost ground in key Republican-leaning areas like Ocean, Monmouth, and Morris County. Those struggles created tough headwinds for down-ballot Republicans, many of whom were already running uphill races.
Once again, the Democrats outraised and outspent Republicans in every single race up and down the ballot. The spending gaps made the challenge even steeper as our target districts were located in some of the most expensive DMAs in the country. In Virginia, Democrats held an average two-to-one spending advantage in each battleground district, dominating airwaves and digital platforms with negative messaging. In New Jersey, that gap widened to an average of nearly three-to-one, driven by union-backed PACs and national progressive special interest groups. Even so, Republican candidates remained competitive across dozens of legislative races, proof of strong grassroots infrastructure, disciplined messaging, and high-quality candidates.
The national political environment worked against Republicans as well. National progressive groups were highly engaged and deployed the Democrat machine by flooding the markets with out-of-state money and operatives. The Democrats pulled out all the stops in order to hold these blue states, even bringing out Obama to campaign for both gubernatorial candidates.
Despite these challenges, Republican legislative candidates consistently overperformed the top of the ticket, showing that our message of low taxes, safety, and accountability resonates even in deep blue districts. 82 of our 83 Republican legislative candidates outperformed the top of the ticket in Virginia, demonstrating the effectiveness of our message, operations, and the quality of our candidates. New Jersey saw incredible turnout, including low and very low propensity voters, far surpassing the previous cycle’s turnout. These results reaffirm the resilience of our efforts and highlight where continued investment, partnership, and focus will be essential heading into 2026.
RSLC Helped Mitigate Damage
Virginia
While the top of the ticket significantly underperformed President Trump and Governor Youngkin, the RSLC PAC’s targeted investments and ground operations played a decisive role in preventing broader setbacks. Despite a historic 15-point loss at the top of the ticket, our efforts helped limit down-ballot losses, seeing our top-tier state legislatives candidates outperform the top of the ticket by an average of 5.0% and Republicans remain on track to hold all seven districts President Trump won by 5-10 points in 2024.
Over the course of the campaign, the RSLC PAC partnered with the Virginia House Republican Campaign Committee (HRCC) to launch a coordinated, six-figure digital ad campaign exposing the broken promises of Richmond Democrats on taxes, energy costs, and public safety. A second wave of ads called out Democrats for blocking commonsense GOP legislation on affordability, education, and crime prevention. These targeted messaging efforts combined with a 7-figure investment in Project Doorstrike and the joint Secure Your Vote initiative with the Republican Attorneys General Association Action Fund and Governor Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia helped connect with voters and get out the vote.
Thanks to this comprehensive, data-driven strategy, Republican candidates remained competitive in some of the toughest districts in the country, successfully preventing Democrats from achieving a supermajority in the Virginia House of Delegates and produced the following results:
New Jersey
While the top of the ticket in New Jersey underperformed President Trump in traditionally Republican counties, the RSLC-New Jersey PAC’s strategic operations helped preserve down-ballot competitiveness across the state. Project Doorstrike was fully activated in New Jersey, driving voter contact and turnout in key legislative districts through field operations, targeted digital persuasion, and community-specific messaging.
In addition to the ground game, the RSLC-NJ PAC launched six-figure digital and radio ad campaigns exposing Trenton Democrats’ failures on energy, crime, and affordability highlighting the real-world consequences of Democrat mismanagement. The RSLC-NJ PAC also deepened its engagement with Hispanic voters, building on historic gains made by President Trump in 2024. Through the RSLC-NJ PAC, the committee rolled out “Basta Ya!” its first-ever all-Spanish statewide radio ad speaking directly to Latino families about the rising costs and corruption fueled by Democratic leadership. These combined efforts strengthened Republican outreach and saw strong Democrat-held seats vote margins cut nearly in half, paving the way for future gains.
We saw vote gains in every single one of our target districts compared to the 2021 elections. The turnout in this off-year election was near the turnout of a presidential year which speaks to the success of the GOTV effort we put forth. Together, these results demonstrated the RSLC’s infrastructure, messaging, and data-driven investments make a measurable difference, a foundation we will continue to build on as we prepare for 2026. In New Jersey this year:
What It Means for the Road Ahead: Turnout Matters
Democrat wins this year were driven by an energized base, a “juiced” turnout fueled more by national political backlash than genuine enthusiasm for their policy agenda. After historic losses in 2024, we knew the Democrats were going to come into this next cycle prepared. Their strategy of leaning on emotion, money, and machine politics to claw back short-term momentum will not last. Their cash advantage and anger may have carried them this time, but Republicans know what it takes to win it back: authentic candidates who connect on affordability, safety, and accountability.
Republicans underperformed at the top of the ticket in areas where President Trump excelled in 2024 – a clear reminder that authenticity and engagement drive enthusiasm. The candidates who reflect their communities, stay focused on local issues, and speak with conviction are the ones who will win in 2026. Strengthening recruitment and training for those types of leaders remains a top priority of the RSLC heading into the next year.
President Trump’s 2024 campaign showed what real connection to voters looks like. His ability to speak directly to working families and energize the base lifted the entire Republican ticket. That same engagement and consistency will be critical in 2026 to ensure every GOP candidate benefits from the momentum at the top.
The RSLC will continue to double down on hyper-localized messaging and candidate recruitment through initiatives like the Right Leaders Network. Building on Right Women, Right Now and the Future Majority Project, these efforts focus on recruiting strong, credible community leaders, not just checking boxes. The RSLC is working to elevate and train the next generation of Republican state leaders ready to win.
By combining President Trump’s successful campaign strategies, RSLC’s proven ground game, and authentic local candidates, Republicans can break through inflated Democrat enthusiasm, reignite our 2024 momentum, and position the party for success in 2026.
Conclusion: Republicans Will Win on Policy If We Stay Focused
These elections also reinforce the critical importance of the RSLC’s mission. Control of state legislatures and key offices is essential for securing fair maps and stopping radical left-wing redistricting efforts that could shape elections for the next decade and beyond. Every race we contest in 2026 will directly influence the political landscape, making early investments, strategic organization, and laser-focused attention on competitive districts absolutely essential.
Our work over the past cycle from targeted voter engagement to strengthening our already successful AB/EV program positions Republicans to capitalize on these opportunities. We have the message, the momentum, and the policies on our side. Now, it’s time to execute with discipline and purpose to secure Republican victories in key states and protect our ability to influence redistricting for years to come.
Edith Jorge-Tuñón
President
Republican State Leadership Committee
