MEMO: New Polling Shows Biden Dragging Down State Democrats in Key Battlegrounds

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Dee Duncan
President, RSLC
DATE: January 27, 2022
RE: New Polling Shows Biden Dragging Down State Democrats in Key Battlegrounds

INTRODUCTION

A new Cygnal survey commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) shows that the radical liberal agenda being pursued by President Biden and his allies in Washington, D.C. is sinking Democrats at the state legislative level in a number of key battleground states across the country. 

Even worse for Democrats? Just like we saw in Virginia’s House of Delegates races in 2021, the top issues on the minds of Americans in battleground states currently favor state Republicans, and the specific policy solutions they propose to address them are supported by the vast majority of voters.

THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS FAVOR STATE REPUBLICANS 

State Republicans enter 2022 with the wind at their backs thanks to the failures of Joe Biden and Democrat-controlled Washington. 

• Only 34% of likely voters think the country is on the right track compared to 62% who believe it is on the wrong track
• Biden is significantly underwater at 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable.

• Elected Democrats in Washington, D.C. and elected Democrats in the state legislature were also underwater at 42%-51% and 44%-49% respectively.
• Elected Republicans in the state legislature were the only group tested in the survey with a net positive image, which stands at 48%-43%.
• Republican state legislative candidates have a 6 point lead on the generic ballot (48%-42%).
• Republicans lead self-identified Independent voters by 15 points.

The main reason for the momentum state Republicans are experiencing right now is that voters want their state legislatures to serve as a counterweight to the Biden agenda.  

• Among the voters surveyed, 51% said they would prefer a Republican candidate who would act as a check and balance on President Biden and his Democratic policies compared to the 40% who would prefer a Democratic candidate who would support President Biden and his Democratic Policies.

THE ISSUES VOTERS ARE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT FAVOR STATE REPUBLICANS 

Another reason that state Republicans are currently surging on the generic ballot is that Americans trust them to handle the issues most important to them.

The Economy and Cost of Living 

• 96% of those surveyed said the “economy in general” is an important issue to them as they consider who to vote for this year (45% extremely important). This was the highest percentage of any issue tested.
• When it comes to which party voters trust in state government to deal with the “economy in general,” Republicans lead Democrats 51%-38%.
• 95% of those surveyed said the high cost of living / inflation is an important issue to them as they consider who to vote for this year (50% extremely important).
• State Republicans have a 49%-39% advantage on this issue.

Crime and Violence

• 94% of those surveyed said crime and violence is an important issue to them.
• State Republicans have a 50%-38% advantage on this issue.

Education

• 91% of those surveyed said education is an important issue to them.
• State Republicans now lead on this issue 44%-43%, a huge development since education overall usually favors Democrats.
• The ground state Republicans have gained on education can be explained by the finding that Republicans lead Democrats 47%-37% when it comes to which party is more trusted to protect parental control in education.

“Democrat Issues”
An even bigger problem for Democrats is that the issues they have prioritized so far this cycle and claim to own are far less important to voters and their advantage on them is statistically non-existent. 

• Only 84% of those surveyed said COVID-19 was an important issue to them.
• Democrats only lead Republicans on the issue 44%-42%.
• Only 86% of those surveyed said voting rights is an important issue to them.
• Democrats only lead Republicans on the issue 45%-43%

REPUBLICANS HAVE THE RIGHT POLICY SOLUTIONS 

Not only do voters trust Republicans in state government to address top concerns such as the rising cost of living, education, and crime, they also favor the specific conservative solutions Republicans are proposing to deal with these problems.

The Cost of Living 

• 74% of those surveyed said that it was important for their state legislature to enact policies like suspending or cutting the gas and sales tax to help offset the rise in inflation and cost of living.

Education

• 67% support their state legislature enacting school choice policies that allow families to have more flexibility to choose the best school and education for their children during the pandemic, such as vouchers or education savings accounts.

CONCLUSION 

If state Republicans continue to run on being the last line of defense against President Biden’s failed leadership and promote policies that stimulate the economy and ease the cost of living, make their communities safer, and empower parents to have more control of their children’s educations, they will have a major advantage on the issues in 2022 in battleground states. 

Democrats, however, are already doing what they always do when they have their backs up against the wall and are on the wrong side of the issues that matter – pouring millions of dollars more into state legislative races. We are counting on your continued support so we can arm state Republicans with the resources necessary to get our already winning messages to voters and make gains and defend our razor-thin majorities this year. 

METHODOLOGY

This survey of 2217 likely general election voters was conducted by Cygnal from January 19 – 20, 2022 in the following battleground states:

• Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, Wisconsin

It has a margin of error of ±2.0%. Known registered voters were interviewed via online panel and validated to the voter file. This survey was weighted to a likely general election voter universe.

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