RSLC Announces State Legislative Targets for 2024

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) enters the 2024 election with a clear mission: safeguard our majorities against the onslaught of liberal spending from the far left, reclaim majorities in key battleground states, and grow our party by winning seats in blue states that will continue to chip away at one-party Democrat rule. 

While Democrats continue to pour more and more resources into state legislative elections, with the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) having already announced its intentions to spend millions of dollars to target Republican supermajorities in states with blue Governors, and deeming 2024 as “the year of the states,” the RSLC stands at the forefront of the fight and remains committed to strengthening and expanding our majorities. The lessons learned from the 2023 election have provided invaluable insights, shaping our approach for the challenges that lie ahead. Building upon the success of our Absentee Ballot and Early Voting (AB/EV) program during the Virginia state elections, we have strategically refined our operations recognizing the urgency to effectively mobilize low-propensity voters and counter potential Democratic gains.

The aftermath of the Virginia elections not only provided a snapshot into the influx of outside spending that will define 2024, so much that it surpassed our entire cycle budget within a month, but it revealed the Democrats’ advantage in newly redrawn maps that provided their candidates with a D +4.2% edge. In response, we recognized the potential impact of a turnout operation targeting low-propensity voters to mobilize and win in these slim-margin districts that will make or break majorities this year.

2024 TARGETS

The math is simple. There are 33 seats that will determine control of the nation. Republicans must flip 7 seats across 3 states to get back to control of 60 state legislative chambers, while Democrats must flip 33 seats across 5 states to have a simple majority of state legislative chambers. 

DEFENDING REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLDS 

With 85 out of 99 state legislative chambers up in 2024, we will need to set the bar higher than ever before to defend our Republican-led majorities. Republicans currently hold 57 of the 99 chambers and will be heavily targeted by Democrats in November as the DLCC has already laid out. Many of these states will also have major implications for the presidential election, which will only increase Democrat spending in the following states:

• Arizona
• Florida
• Georgia
• New Hampshire
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Texas
• Wisconsin

And while these states will not alter the balance of top of the ticket races, they are still critical to protect:

• Arkansas
• Iowa
• Indiana
• Kansas
• Kentucky 
• Nebraska

RECLAIMING MAJORITIES

Democrats currently hold razor thin majorities across three chambers in three states, with Republicans needing to flip less than 10 seats combined to retake their respective majorities.

• Michigan
• Minnesota
• Pennsylvania 

OPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH

Joe Biden’s popularity continues to dwindle, and with Republicans carrying every Biden +9% or less districts in Virginia in 2023, a state carried by Biden by 10 points in 2020, there are some opportunities to grow our party and work to chip away at Democrat majorities. 

• California
• Colorado
• Illinois
• Maine
• Nevada
• New York 
• Oregon
• Washington

WHAT WE LEARNED IN 2023

Republicans gained valuable lessons in 2023 that will set us up for success in 2024.

1. Across the nation, Republicans must invest in an AB/EV program that targets and turns out low propensity voters. This will require full buy-in from our in-state partners, sister committees, and coordinated campaigns in order to maximize efforts across the nation. While Republicans did not have the night they wanted during the 2023 elections, we now know that an effective AB/EV program can deliver tangible results that can directly alter the outcome of state legislative races and help candidates at all levels of the ballot.
2. Republicans must message effectively by clarifying their position on issues that matter to voters at the beginning of the election cycle and spend the year discussing what they stand for, not what they are against, to their constituents. Republicans will need a significantly larger investment to be able to pushback on false Democrat attack ads if they want to be heard. 
3. The days of complacency have come to an end. Democrats were able to overtake our largest ever investment into Virginia by committing to spend over $7 million dollars in three weeks down the final stretch of the Virginia elections. The only way to defend our majorities, reclaim majorities, and grow our party is direct investment into state legislative races to counter outside national liberal groups who are pouring more money into the states year after year. 

CONCLUSION

As we enter the dynamic landscape of the 2024 election cycle, state Republicans face their largest task in over a decade of defending Republican majorities across the country. With Joe Biden up for re-election in 2024, this year could significantly alter the balance of statehouse control nationwide. Our best line of defense against extreme Democrats is our AB/EV program, and we will need to invest more money than ever if we are going to be successful in defending our majorities, reclaiming majorities, and going on offense and taking advantage of opportunities to grow our party in traditionally blue states.