MEMORANDUM
To: RSLC Stakeholders
From: Edith Jorge-Tuñón, President, Republican State Leadership Committee
Date: October 31, 2025
RE: The New Redistricting Arms Race: How Winning Down-Ballot Elections in 2026 Are Essential for Republicans in 2029
Overview: The Redistricting Arms Race Has Escalated to an Every Cycle Fight
When Barack Obama and Eric Holder launched the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC) in 2017, they claimed their mission was to create “fair maps.” But in reality, “fairness” was always a smokescreen for a well-funded, coordinated strategy to secure partisan advantage. The NDRC was never about neutrality — it was about flipping districts to benefit Democrats, and the results speak for themselves.
After the key developments of the last several months, it’s clear that redistricting has morphed into a permanent arms race — one that now plays out every election cycle, not just after the census.
Democrats are no longer pretending. Today, Holder, Obama, and the entire national Democrat apparatus are openly embracing aggressive gerrymandering in blue strongholds like California, Illinois, Maryland and New York using state courts and commissions to push the envelope and tip the balance of power in the U.S. House ahead of 2026.
This willingness to redraw maps outside the traditional, census-driven process reveals the Left’s new playbook: permanent redistricting, every cycle, by any means necessary. And unless Republicans are prepared to match their focus and intensity, we risk allowing Democrats to gerrymander their way to a majority — not just once a decade, but year after year.
Winning state legislative elections has always been critical to advancing the conservative movement. But this new era imposes an even greater responsibility on our committee. The fight for the future of the U.S. House now hinges on our ability to hold — and expand — our state legislative majorities every single cycle.
We are now one of the most strategic and cost-effective investments in national politics — and our first major test in this new era is already underway.
This memo will outline the seismic shift that has occurred in recent months and why your continued support is more vital than ever.
Texas: How RSLC Helped Achieve a Blueprint for Success
In August, Texas Republicans successfully enacted new congressional maps that meet all legal standards and reflect the will of the Texas electorate. This monumental achievement would not have happened without the continued commitment of Texas Republicans to hold and expand their majorities in recent cycles. RSLC was a key part of that success, spending $3.6 million in Texas in 2020 alone to help combat the influx of national Democrat dollars flowing to the state as part of the “flip everything” strategy they have been touting in recent cycles.
As part of its flip everything strategy in 2020, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), invested $1.3 million into flipping the Texas House which ultimately failed.
The Texas example underscores why state-level control is the foundation of national power. Texas Republicans capitalized on its opportunity to maximize its congressional representation following big down-ballot victories that occurred a cycle earlier. This should be the model for all our future efforts: Prioritizing and winning state legislative elections in a given cycle means the control of the pen for Congressional maps in the next. Missouri likewise recently enacted a new congressional map that would shift its delegation from a 6‑2 Republican advantage to a 7‑1 split in favor of Republicans.
Democrat Retaliation: Gerrymandering in Blue States
After their disastrous defeat in Texas, Democrats have turned their focus to blue strongholds, where they wield unchecked power to tilt congressional maps in their favor. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom is working hand-in-glove with national Democrat operatives and liberal megadonors to force through a new congressional map designed to pad their U.S. House majority.
Similar efforts are underway in Illinois, where Obama alumni and election lawyers are orchestrating a push to redraw maps ahead of 2026. These states are serving as laboratories for a Democrat strategy: lock down blue territory to offset Republican gains elsewhere.
The irony in this situation is Republicans in Texas simply exercised their right through the legislature, as stated in their constitution, to redraw a congressional map that keeps in pace with the will the voters expressed in 2022. Democrats in California, however, are looking to temporarily abolish an independent commission to satisfy their political appetite, undercutting the Left’s supposed support for “Democratic Institutions.”
Winning State Legislative Races in 2026 Decides Who Holds the Redistricting Pen In 2027
While many political observers are focused on how congressional maps will be redrawn in other states across the country this year, there is little donor dollars can do at this point to impact the outcome. Instead, it’s important to recognize that the fight for 2027 redistricting—and the US House in 2028—has already started. Failure for donors in our party to quickly grasp this reality could have major consequences for control of Washington in the years to come.
The last several cycles, Democrats have better understood how to leverage a multi-cycle state power strategy to impact the U.S. House playing field. They caught us off guard with their sue-to-blue strategy that allowed them to overturn maps in 2021 in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania therefore limiting the Republican wave in 2022. We cannot allow them to beat us to the punch at exploiting the new every-cycle redistricting reality we now face.
If we fail to take state legislative elections seriously in 2026, Democrats and their money machine sure will. This could result in massive losses for state Republicans this cycle and the redistricting pen in a number of key states in the hands of the Left when redistricting resumes in 2027. The implications? President Trump’s successor could be dealing with a baked-in Democrat majority in the U.S. House before even announcing their campaign. Any hope at another historic Republican reconciliation package being passed in 2029 means taking state legislative elections seriously in 2026.
The Stakes: 2026 State Legislative Battlegrounds
The 2026 cycle won’t just determine who writes laws in state capitals—it will decide who controls the pen when new congressional maps are drawn in 2027. If Democrats flip just a handful of seats in key battleground states, they’ll gain trifectas that allow them to rewrite the political playing field for the next decade. That means locking in Democratic advantages in Washington, D.C., all the way through 2030. For Republicans, every single statehouse race in chambers like these is about much more than one term—it’s about who controls the balance of power in Congress.
The stakes in these states could not be higher. If Democrats capture even the smallest margins in states like Michigan, Minnesota, or Pennsylvania, they’ll use their new majorities to tilt the congressional map in their favor, lock in more seats in Washington, and weaken Republicans’ ability to win a majority in the U.S. House. That’s why Republicans cannot afford to cede ground—these legislative battlegrounds are where the fight for control of Congress will truly be won or lost.
A Smarter Investment: State Races vs. Federal Races
Winning state legislatures the cycle before a congressional election isn’t about laying groundwork for some distant future—it’s about shaping the very next national election. Control of state chambers directly impacts congressional maps, voter access rules, and candidate pipelines, meaning victories at the state level this cycle translate into a stronger Republican majority in the U.S. House just two years later. And it will be a lot more efficient from a resources perspective to spend money this year to protect or expand state legislative majorities rather than spending to dig ourselves out of a hole if the congressional battlefield is tilted against Republicans a cycle from now.
The numbers speak for themselves:
California’s 45th is one of the most competitive swing districts in the nation, with control flipping back and forth in recent cycles. Both parties see it as essential to holding or winning the House majority, which is why it attracts such staggering sums of money. Yet the outcome of this one seat pales in comparison to the structural power Republicans can secure by winning a handful of state legislative chambers.
That is the multiplier effect of investing in state legislatures: for a fraction of the cost of a single congressional race, Republicans can tilt the playing field for dozens of seats in Washington. The only thing holding us back is forward thinking and the recognition that this year’s state legislative races will determine the congressional battlefield in 2028.
The Call to Action: Invest in RSLC Now
Redistricting is now a phenomenon that will occur every cycle, and the battle for the U.S. House will be largely dependent on the results of state legislative races a cycle earlier. This new reality means the work of the RSLC has never been more important. Our success in Texas provides a successful blueprint for how we should approach the redistricting fight going forward.
If Republicans want to have a House majority for President Trump’s successor in 2029, the fight must start in state legislative races today. Now is the time to make the most effective investment in politics—one that will shape the battlefield for years to come.
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